We have all heard the cheesy catchphrase “a puncher’s chance” associated with an underdog’s odds of winning a fight. It may be time to add a breath of fresh air to the corny cliche as in today’s world of combat sports, we continue to see heavy underdogs come up big by way of unlikely submission. With a chance submission being your most likely path to victory, the moniker “a subber’s chance” seems to fit the bill. Just as any punch thrown at an opponent is in no way a lucky punch, these improbable underdog submissions are in no way lucky or of the “fluke-ish” persuasion.
Now, having a subber’s chance is not necessarily a good thing. It means that someone does not have a solid chance of winning a fight outside of a long-shot submission. Also, just as a puncher’s chance rarely comes to fruition, a successful subber’s chance is an even rarer occurrence.
Here are a few examples of a subber’s chance gone right:
“Raging” Al Iaquinta vs Mitch “Danger Zone” Clark – UFC 173
In this match, the -500 favorite “Raging” Al Iaquinta took on the +385 underdog Mitch “Danger Zone” Clarke. Iaquinta was getting the better of Clarke on the feet and after dropping Clarke via strikes, Iaquinta decided to enter into the “danger zone.” With “Raging” Al looking to transition from north/south, Clarke slapped on an unlikely D’arce from a funky angle, thus rendering Al Iaquinta unconscious and achieving the technical submission victory.
If you have a subscription to UFC Fight Pass, you can watch Mitch Clarke’s comeback victory HERE.
Alexis Dufresne vs Marlos Coenen – Bellator 155
This match saw heavy favorite, and women’s MMA pioneer, Marlos Coenen (-650) finished by heavy underdog Alexis Dufresne (+475) via armbar.
Click HERE to watch the Alexis Dufresne’s upset finish of Marlos Coenen.
Darrion Caldwell vs Joe Taimanglo – Bellator 159
At Bellator 159, fans saw the hype train get derailed for All American collegiate wrestling standout Darrion Caldwell. The heavy -1375 favorite Caldwell was choked out via third round guillotine by the +900 underdog Joe Taimanglo.
Check out Taimanglo with the subber’s chance victory:
For fun, click HERE to see a subber’s chance gone wrong.
As combat sports continue to grow, we will continue to see more and more unlikely underdog, come-from-behind, last-minute, Hail Mary submission victories. These types of wins have become the new puncher’s chance, so why not label them as such?
The subber’s chance is real!